Yemen: Grim Prospects for Peace

By: Moneer Al-Omari

The UN Special Envoy to Yemen, Martin Griffiths, has embarked on a new round of consultations with the relevant parties and stakeholders in the conflict with the aim of securing their initial consent and negotiating what he calls the elements of the peace framework in preparation for forthcoming peace negotiations.

“I encourage all parties to secure the right conditions for them to come together around the table in a consensus to build peace,” Griffiths said.

In his most recent visit to the area last week, Griffiths met with the spokesperson of the Houthi Movement, Mohammed Abdulsalam, who has been in Oman for the last few months.

Griffiths was, according to some Houthi sources, planning to fly to Sana'a to meet with other leaders of the Houthi movement, as well as some leaders of the General People Congress (GPC), but it was unclear why his visit was postponed.

Prior to his visit to Oman, Griffiths was in Riyadh where he met with the Yemeni Foreign Minister Abdulmalik Al-Mikhlafi, and later, the Saudi Foreign Minister Adel Al-Jubair.

However, many experts seem to be skeptical about the prospects of the forthcoming negotiations and Griffiths’ ability to reach any peace deal to end the enduring conflict, which has led to one of the worst man-made humanitarian crises in recent history.

The hard part of Griffiths' job is how to meet the different needs of the parties involved in the peace process and how to secure a peace deal that responds to the largely conflicting fears and interests of every party. 

This cynicism about the likelihood of failure has been evidenced by two rounds of negotiations facilitated and led by the former Special Envoy to Yemen Ismail Ould Cheikh Ahmed. The two rounds were held in Switzerland's Biel and later in Kuwait.

Both rounds proved to be futile largely due to the Houthi rigidity and their unwillingness to hand over heavy weapons, to withdraw from cities, and to accept other security arrangements.

Houthis to Blame the Most

In his last briefing, Ould Cheikh Ahmed openly accused the Houthi militia of hindering all peace efforts.

"Those who follow the Yemen file closely will acknowledge that the United Nations has spared no effort to help the Yemeni parties reach a peaceful solution. During the course of my interactions with the parties, we have discussed the details of a peace roadmap with a clear timeline, taking into account the parties needs and challenges," Ahmed.

He added that the negotiating parties in Kuwait were about to reach an agreement, but it was foiled at the very last minute by the Houthi delegation.

"Today, I would like to announce, for the first time, that we were about to reach an agreement on a peace proposal, developed in consultation with the parties, but they refused to sign in the last minute," said Ahmed.

He further noted that Houthis are not ready for peace or to make concessions.

"In the end of the consultations, it became clear that the Houthis were not prepared to make concessions on the proposed security arrangements. This has been a major stumbling block towards reaching a negotiated solution," Ahmed revealed.

The key parties involved in these negotiations include the legitimate government, Houthis, and the GPC. It is not yet clear if the Southern Movement, largely representing what is called the Southern Transitional Council (STC), will be invited.

 Except the Houthis, all parties can, according to many observers, somehow accept the fair peace proposals, including the extremist STC whose members are calling for self-determination of South Yemen, hinting STC's decision is in the hands of the United Arab Emirates (UAE).

Houthis, supported by the forces loyal to former President Ali Saleh, launched the coup against the elected government, and they are the ones who started the internal expansion wars.

"Houthis are the one to blame. They started this destructive war, and it will never stop, even if the Saudi-led Arab Coalition and the legitimate government unilaterally decide to stop this war. Houthis will continue their expansion wars,” according to Samer Saleh, a Yemeni journalist.

According to the Yemeni political analyst and expert Abdulnaser Al-Muwadea, the Houthi Movement, based on their ideologies and their violent past, can never accept democracy and pluralism. They have only two options: either to rule alone and accept some formal partnership with the others or to be fully quashed by their enemies. 

He added that the Houthis have their own religious interpretation for the governing system, which centers on the idea of monopolizing power in the hands of the descendants of prophet Mohammed.

"The movement will never relinquish the power that they obtained through war, violence, and plots. It has been at war with many different parties, and this has earned them a lot of revenge and hatred. These feelings of hatred and revenge by their enemies cannot be washed away without either a full defeat for their enemies or full victory for Houthis" said Al-Muwadea.

Iran's Involvement

According to Al-Muwadea, the whole issue is not in the hands of Houthis, but rather is in the hands of Iran, which controls this terrorist group.

"Iran has actually made a strategic penetration in Yemen through Houthis, and they benefit the most from prolonging this war and exhausting Saudi Arabia and other GCC countries, considered the key enemies of the mullahs’ regime in Iran, by having them meddle more and more in the Yemeni quagmire," stated Al-Muwadea.

He continued that Iran will do its best to hinder any political settlement or military victory to keep the war ongoing. The least they could accept is a deal that allows the Houthis to strengthen their existence in northern provinces.

In line with Al-Muwadea's opinion, Saleh believes that peace can never be achieved as long as the Houthis have some power and are still able to recruit new fighters and enjoy political, military, and media support from Iran.

Saleh further added that the only way to reach a peaceful settlement with the Houthis, who like other Iranian arms in the area are run by Hezbollah, is to defeat them militarily and this will force them to come to the negotiation table. 

"As long as they have the feeling that their gains accumulated over the last few years are intact, they will never accept any peace proposal," said Saleh.

He added that the Houthi, being a militia, will keep on fighting as long as they control some provinces, recruit new fighters, and secure financial resources, which can help sustain their internal wars.